Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb8e…183a crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$332 (-37%) realized −$128 · open −$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$566
other 10% +$1
world 7% $0
culture 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-75.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -72.9% -75.5% 0% 0% -90.1%
≤30d 3 -72.9% -75.5% 0% 0% -90.1%
≤90d 3 -72.9% -75.5% 0% 0% -90.1%
all 3 -72.9% -75.5% 0% 0% -90.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.5% 0% -90.1%
10% -77.8% 0% -91.0%
15% -80.0% 0% -91.9%
20% -81.9% 0% -92.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$121 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$204
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? No 3¢ 1¢ $281 $77 −$204 (-73%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$8 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $321 −$321 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $75 −$33 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.39 · official $257.39 (match) · 13 history records