Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DB 0xdb94…a015 sports 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$387 (+11%) realized +$387 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days−$18
14 days+$190
30 days+$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -16.5% -24.4% 26% 26% -12.6%
≤30d 82 +15.1% +4.1% 46% 46% +0.1%
≤90d 82 +15.1% +4.1% 46% 46% +0.1%
all 82 +15.1% +4.1% 46% 46% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 46% +0.1%
10% -5.9% 46% -9.5%
15% -15.0% 46% -18.2%
20% -23.3% 46% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$36 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$387
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions6
Markets (closed)82 / 88
History coverage19d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 59¢ 66¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 79¢ 67¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) Noskova 70¢ 68¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro Hernan Casanova 43¢ 46¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Ann Li 39¢ 44¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+12%)
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 66¢ 62¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 22 $31 +$63 +206%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $18 +$82 +442%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $56 +$121 +216%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $31 +$46 +152%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $30 +$21 +70%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $30 −$5 -15%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $15 +$64 +414%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $31 +$39 +127%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $26 +$79 +307%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $50 +$56 +112%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $49 +$51 +104%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $19 +$16 +83%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $11 +$16 +144%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $15 +$15 +104%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $6 +$12 +216%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $61 +$36 +60%
Set Handicap: Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $71 +$56 +79%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $30 $0 -2%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer BUY Gijs Brouwer 27¢ $26 1h
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) BUY Noskova 71¢ $30 2h
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) BUY Noskova 67¢ $11 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 59¢ $40 4h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 79¢ $50 25h
Piracicaba: Hernan Casanova vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Hernan Casanova 43¢ $36 28h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 32¢ $31 45h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 45h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 66¢ $30 47h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 39¢ $31 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 39¢ $25 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 20¢ $15 5d
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 18¢ $18 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $18 5d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 19¢ $16 5d
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Darya Astakhova 47¢ $36 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 16¢ $26 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 19¢ $10 5d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 67¢ $20 6d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 67¢ $20 6d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 40¢ $41 6d
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 37¢ $36 6d
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 31¢ $56 6d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $31 7d
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 59¢ $30 7d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 58¢ $30 7d
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $30 7d
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 68¢ $3 8d
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 66¢ $3 8d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 43¢ $22 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.71 · official $225.71 (match) · 286 history records