Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdb96…eb44 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$219
politics 32% −$8
sports 10% +$28
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +1.1% -8.5% 7% 5% -10.3%
all 109 +0.8% -8.8% 10% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -10.3%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.9%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.7%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage115d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $245 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $175 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $354 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $362 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $395 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 06 $206 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $350 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $232 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $206 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $185 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $341 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $423 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $457 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 32h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 33h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 12d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $175 26d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 26d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $158 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $158 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 29d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 30d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 30d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $201 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $210 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $210 31d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $162 31d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $162 32d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $198 33d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $198 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $198 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $198 35d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records