Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb99…a563 crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$163 (+4%) realized +$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%52W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$99
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 60% -12.3%
≤30d 13 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 46% -13.3%
≤90d 106 -15.7% -23.7% 49% 40% -11.2%
all 106 -15.7% -23.7% 49% 40% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 40% -11.2%
10% -31.0% 28% -19.7%
15% -37.7% 20% -27.4%
20% -43.8% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses52 / 54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage41d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $227 +$37 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $153 +$81 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$63 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $108 +$57 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 27 $8 −$6 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 27 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 13 $54 −$21 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 13 $98 −$19 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 13 $81 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 13 $113 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 13 $59 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 13 $109 −$26 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 13 $73 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 13 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 13 $36 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 13 $26 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 13 $32 +$37 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 13 $49 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 13 $28 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 13 $53 −$37 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 13 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 13 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 13 $54 −$29 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 13 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 13 $57 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 13 $57 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 13 $221 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 13 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 13 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 13 $54 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 13 $56 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 13 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 13 $37 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 13 $31 −$13 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 13 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 13 $92 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 13 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 13 $63 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 13 $12 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 13 $19 −$18 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $235 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.63 · official $5.63 (match) · 485 history records