Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdb9c…fdeb sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-21%) realized −$116 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$171
other 29% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.9% -49.2% 20% 20% -38.4%
≤30d 6 -39.4% -45.2% 17% 17% -37.7%
≤90d 6 -39.4% -45.2% 17% 17% -37.7%
all 6 -39.4% -45.2% 17% 17% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.2% 17% -37.7%
10% -50.5% 17% -43.6%
15% -55.2% 17% -49.1%
20% -59.6% 17% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$34 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $59 $76 +$17 (+28%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 26 $154 −$11 -7%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 26 $124 −$94 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$4 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $142 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $154 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 10h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 11h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 14d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 14d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 14d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $94 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.90 · official $111.90 (match) · 18 history records