Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdb9e…fe9d sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$295 (+47%) realized +$295 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$250
sports 46% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 58% +35.3%
≤30d 12 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 58% +35.3%
≤90d 12 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 58% +35.3%
all 12 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 58% +35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.6% 58% +35.3%
10% +14.5% 58% +22.3%
15% +3.4% 50% +10.5%
20% -6.7% 50% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$28 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 +$97 +262%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$74 +206%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $46 +$88 +192%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $102 +$85 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$23 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $52 +$37 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $169 +$46 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $36 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $36 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $39 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $36 15h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $4 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 14¢ $2 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 23h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 84¢ $53 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $89 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $52 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $31 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $65 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records