Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb9f…dd87 crypto 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-2%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%63W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$380
other 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.8% -7.9% 58% 55% -6.6%
≤30d 38 +1.8% -7.9% 58% 55% -6.6%
≤90d 115 -5.3% -14.3% 55% 51% -14.3%
all 115 -5.3% -14.3% 55% 51% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 51% -14.3%
10% -22.5% 43% -22.5%
15% -30.0% 37% -30.0%
20% -36.9% 27% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$43 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses63 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage82d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$47 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$18 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$55 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$45 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$45 +90%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $21 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$54 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$47 +95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$55 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? May 25 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 25 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 25 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 25 $204 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 25 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 25 $204 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 25 $121 +$78 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 25 $205 −$53 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 25 $204 +$82 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $50 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $97 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $96 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $59 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.49 (match) · 264 history records