Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb9f…fd64 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$5
other 26% −$4
crypto 2% +$1
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 22% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 23 -1.9% -11.2% 17% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 23 -1.9% -11.2% 17% 0% -10.4%
all 37 -5.5% -14.5% 22% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -10.5%
10% -22.7% 0% -19.1%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage454d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $36 +$2 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $63 −$5 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $50 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $91 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $18 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $92 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 14 $2 −$2 -75%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -79%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 08 $2 $0 -9%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times April 4 - 11? Apr 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $24 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records