Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdba1…a269 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$28 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$20
other 44% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.9% -16.6% 46% 46% -5.9%
≤30d 26 -7.9% -16.6% 46% 46% -5.9%
≤90d 26 -7.9% -16.6% 46% 46% -5.9%
all 26 -7.9% -16.6% 46% 46% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 46% -5.9%
10% -24.6% 46% -14.9%
15% -31.9% 42% -23.1%
20% -38.6% 38% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$16 +70%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $6 +$5 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$5 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $9 $0 -1%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $6 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$9 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $36 +$27 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$38 +56%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $36 −$32 -89%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $47 +$32 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 −$1 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $39 +$35 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 11h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $6 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 31¢ $9 17h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 33¢ $6 25h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 37h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 39h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 40h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $9 40h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $36 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 3d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain $4 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 33¢ $16 4d
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.45 · official $72.45 (match) · 55 history records