Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdba6…c2fe crypto 1544 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate86%1331W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$93
14 days−$92
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$48
sports 4% +$10
other 3% −$10
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -12.0% -20.4% 80% 6% -23.9%
≤30d 927 -2.1% -11.5% 82% 16% -10.2%
≤90d 1543 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 11% -9.8%
all 1543 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 11% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1331 / 212
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1543 / 1544
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 90¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.62 · official $2.48 · 3500 history records