Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	1¢	1¢	$192	$205	+$14 (+7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$112	$70	−$42 (-38%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$50	−$50 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-17%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$150	$0	−$150 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	0¢	0¢	$226	$0	−$226 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$176	$0	−$176 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$326	$0	−$326 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee	Apr 27	$226	−$226	-100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	Apr 27	$176	−$176	-100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	Apr 27	$326	−$326	-100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m	Apr 27	$150	−$150	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

economics 100% −$961

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet	BUY No	1¢	$12	21h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	21h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet	BUY No	1¢	$84	21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	1¢	$105	21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$13	30h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$105	30h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet	BUY No	1¢	$105	30h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee	BUY No	0¢	$226	45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$26	45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	BUY Yes	0¢	$100	45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	BUY Yes	0¢	$100	45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	BUY Yes	0¢	$26	46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	BUY Yes	0¢	$50	46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m	BUY Yes	0¢	$50	46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$150	46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m	BUY Yes	0¢	$150	46d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.