Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DB 0xdbae…0f67 tech 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+14%) realized +$79 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 91% +$49
other 9% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.4% -34.3% 50% 50% -5.8%
≤30d 4 +5.5% -4.6% 75% 75% +9.4%
≤90d 4 +5.5% -4.6% 75% 75% +9.4%
all 4 +5.5% -4.6% 75% 75% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 75% +9.4%
10% -13.7% 75% -1.0%
15% -22.1% 50% -10.6%
20% -29.7% 0% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage39d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 63¢ 66¢ $270 $281 +$11 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 87¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $101 +$46 +45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 01 $61 +$30 +49%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $101 +$28 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $152 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $122 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 13d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 97¢ $91 13d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 64¢ $61 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 77¢ $101 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.08 · official $385.08 (match) · 10 history records