Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbaf…f5d1 sports 586 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-0%) realized −$708 · open +$460
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%232W / 391L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day95.1pace
Fees−$3,935est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14,970
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -23.9% -31.2% 34% 30% -21.8%
≤30d 520 -22.8% -30.2% 35% 31% -22.6%
≤90d 623 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 33% -18.6%
all 623 -13.6% -21.8% 37% 33% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 33% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 29% -26.4%
15% -36.1% 26% -33.5%
20% -42.4% 24% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$526) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$328 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized−$708
Unrealized+$460
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses232 / 391
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$3,935
Open positions1
Markets (closed)623 / 586
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$419
Trades / day95.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 45¢ 100¢ $377 $838 +$460 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 379 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $551 −$551 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $222 −$222 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $166 −$166 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 17 $497 −$497 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $273 −$273 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Ground Zero - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game Jun 17 $461 −$461 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $321 −$321 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $294 −$294 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs JiJieHao (BO3) - Asian Champions League Gr Jun 17 $191 −$191 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $425 −$425 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $341 −$341 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $181 −$181 -100%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime Leagu Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 17 $512 −$512 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $232 −$232 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $802 −$802 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $924 +$1,514 +164%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $735 +$1,495 +203%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $144 +$156 +108%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $119 +$76 +64%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $607 −$607 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 +$6 +73%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$26 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $919 −$919 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $120 +$152 +127%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 45¢ $383 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $281 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $2 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $20 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $1 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $9 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $3 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $125 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $81 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $1 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $163 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $23 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $6 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $35 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $13 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $21 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $11 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $6 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $2,438 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $18 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $110 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $44 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $9 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $742 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $2,231 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $28 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $6 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $17 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $33 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $15 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $837.58 · official $837.58 (match) · 3500 history records