Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbb0…e607 sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+14%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%90W / 78L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$15
14 days+$8
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$27
other 44% +$93
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.6% +11.8% 86% 86% +7.5%
≤30d 159 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 53% +5.1%
≤90d 168 +1.5% -8.1% 54% 53% +3.8%
all 168 +1.5% -8.1% 54% 53% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 53% +3.8%
10% -16.9% 49% -6.1%
15% -24.9% 44% -15.2%
20% -32.3% 35% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses90 / 78
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 170
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $7 +$3 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $19 +$10 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 +$7 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$13 -81%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $3 −$1 -28%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2 +$1 +73%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $1 +$1 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $1 +$1 +67%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$12 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $1 +$2 +158%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $1 −$1 -80%
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Ryota Tanuma Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $16 37m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $7 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $9 7d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $2 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 39¢ $2 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 8d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $1 8d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 57¢ $2 8d
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 62¢ $1 8d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 59¢ $1 8d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 59¢ $1 8d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $2 8d
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Facundo Acosta 77¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.65 · official $4.65 (match) · 334 history records