Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbb6…9dec sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,034 (-15%) realized −$1,979 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%85W / 77L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$1,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$685
sports 44% −$1,427
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +66.7% +50.8% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤30d 4 +18.3% +7.0% 75% 75% +49.9%
≤90d 35 +10.2% -0.3% 54% 54% -11.4%
all 162 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 52% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 52% -23.0%
10% -24.4% 46% -30.4%
15% -31.7% 36% -37.1%
20% -38.4% 31% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +37% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$92 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1,979
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses85 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage244d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? Yes 86¢ 44¢ $95 $48 −$47 (-49%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 23¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $60 +$40 +67%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $112 +$38 +33%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,501 +$1,099 +73%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Sacramento Kings receive the first overall pick at the 2026 NBA D May 11 $132 +$17 +12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $70 +$30 +43%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $10 +$17 +165%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $600 +$400 +67%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $9 +$11 +113%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 26 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 22 $670 −$670 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1,530 +$1,400 +92%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $150 +$115 +77%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $46 +$52 +114%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the Sacramento Kings have the worst record in the NBA? Apr 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $50 +$103 +206%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $80 +$139 +174%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $50 +$39 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Kings Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Lions vs. Vikings Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi (Flyweight, Main Card Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Heat Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks Mar 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $28 1h
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 1h
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 1h
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 1h
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $41 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 47¢ $48 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $570 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $881 28d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 60¢ $58 28d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 30d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 40¢ $15 41d
Will Sacramento Kings receive the first overall pick at the 2026 NBA D BUY No 88¢ $43 46d
Will Sacramento Kings receive the first overall pick at the 2026 NBA D BUY No 89¢ $89 47d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 48d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 51¢ $20 53d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 43¢ $20 54d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 37¢ $10 55d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 41¢ $20 55d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $20 56d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 32¢ $102 57d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic $5 57d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 37¢ $10 57d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 36¢ $10 57d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 60¢ $492 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 60¢ $3 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 60¢ $30 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 60¢ $3 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 60¢ $44 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 60¢ $14 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.24 · official $49.24 (match) · 409 history records