Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbb8…c0e9 other 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (409 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$529 (-7%) realized −$530 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate52%100W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day408.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$146
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% +$6
other 25% −$113
world 18% −$10
tech 12% −$14
sports 7% +$6
politics 4% −$24
finance 2% −$3
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (409 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 11% -11.6%
≤30d 193 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 13% -11.6%
≤90d 193 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 13% -11.6%
all 193 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 13% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover408.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 13% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 8% -20.0%
15% -23.9% 6% -27.8%
20% -31.4% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized−$530
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses100 / 93
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions11
Markets (closed)193 / 204
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day408.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $281 $281 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 24? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? No 90¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 21? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 15-21? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 20? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 18 $116 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 24? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 21? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 23? Jun 18 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 18 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 22? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 15-21? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 22? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 18 $407 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 18? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -11%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $17 −$4 -25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $7 $0 -6%
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -88%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $92 +$2 +2%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -10%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -4%
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $182 +$7 +4%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e Jun 17 $8 $0 -5%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? SELL No 100¢ $12 5m
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $10 48m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $12 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $67 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 88¢ $26 4h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? SELL No 95¢ $6 4h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? SELL No 95¢ $6 4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $4 5h
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 5h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL No 100¢ $6 6h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $8 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $36 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $6 7h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 8h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.74 · official $684.52 (match) · 3500 history records