Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
DB 0xdbb8…cb4f crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+5%) realized +$61 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%28W / 16L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$30
sports 19% +$113
other 12% −$36
world 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +21.4% +9.8% 64% 59% +2.6%
≤30d 44 +21.4% +9.8% 64% 59% +2.6%
≤90d 44 +21.4% +9.8% 64% 59% +2.6%
all 44 +21.4% +9.8% 64% 59% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 59% +2.6%
10% -0.7% 52% -7.2%
15% -10.3% 48% -16.2%
20% -19.1% 34% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses28 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$24 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$32 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $14 +$36 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $68 +$10 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $2.21 · 108 history records