Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbbc…ed7c other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 897d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$11,715 (-30%) realized −$11,808 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%5W / 67L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$7,201
other 19% +$7,073
crypto 18% −$3,502
economics 15% −$5,878
tech 10% −$1,765
sports 1% −$532
world 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 72 -32.3% -38.8% 7% 7% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 7% -41.1%
10% -44.6% 7% -46.7%
15% -50.0% 7% -51.9%
20% -54.9% 7% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -39% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,185 vs −$341 · ×6.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

897d coverage
Net worth$2,435
Realized−$11,808
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses5 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage897d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,342 $2,435 +$93 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Nov 06 $3,020 +$2,022 +67%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 27 $1,646 −$1,632 -99%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 24 $1,451 −$1,450 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 24 $1,745 −$1,745 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 20 $3,579 −$1,680 -47%
TikTok banned in 2025? Jan 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? Jan 19 $119 −$119 -100%
Makhachev vs. Moicano Jan 19 $512 −$512 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Jan 13 $245 −$245 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Tesla bot at Trump inauguration? Jan 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Nov 16 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Nov 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Nov 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 16 $290 −$290 -100%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 16 $100 +$383 +383%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 16 $500 +$1,936 +387%
Will Biden resign before the election? Nov 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Nov 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi? Nov 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or? Nov 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi? Nov 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi? Nov 05 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi? Nov 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,100 −$59 -5%
Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi? Nov 05 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Mira Murati join Anthropic? Nov 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi? Nov 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? Nov 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi? Nov 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Nov 05 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi? Nov 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi? Nov 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi? Nov 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Nov 05 $3,054 −$2,734 -90%
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Nov 05 $8,004 −$5,602 -70%
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? Nov 05 $70 +$930 +1329%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin speech October 1 Oct 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum above $2,500 on September 27? Oct 04 $726 −$726 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Sep 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Sep 25 $30 −$30 -100%
[Single Market] Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican pres Sep 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $113 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $82 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 3h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $82 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $309 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 6d
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 228d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 2¢ $80 228d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 96¢ $467 286d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,448 286d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 286d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 95¢ $950 286d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 90¢ $450 286d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? SELL Yes 90¢ $450 286d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,434.60 · official $2,434.60 (match) · 737 history records