Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdbbd…d6f0 sports 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,805 (-5%) realized −$14,905 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%97W / 92L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,669per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1,960est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11,456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,752
7 days−$4,896
14 days−$5,637
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$15,848
other 2% −$535
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -45.4% -50.6% 36% 29% -38.8%
≤30d 28 -30.8% -37.4% 39% 36% -10.4%
≤90d 104 -11.2% -19.6% 46% 45% -32.8%
all 189 +3.4% -6.4% 51% 50% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 50% -14.4%
10% -15.4% 48% -22.6%
15% -23.6% 44% -30.1%
20% -31.1% 42% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$2,198) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,322 vs −$1,573 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$11,456
Realized−$14,905
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses97 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,960
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage99d
Avg bet$1,669
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 57¢ $11,356 $11,456 +$100 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $96 +$68 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $238 −$238 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $232 −$232 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $2,300 +$523 +23%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $6,198 −$659 -11%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $192 −$192 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $183 −$183 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $575 −$575 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,099 −$1,099 -100%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 26 $1,404 +$135 +10%
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $6 +$1 +14%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $202 −$202 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $97 +$58 +60%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $740 −$740 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 14 $671 −$671 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $255 +$247 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $3,167 +$3,073 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $3,913 +$3,797 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $2,287 +$2,310 +101%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5) Jun 04 $927 −$927 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $2,796 −$2,796 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies May 31 $399 −$399 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 31 $2,732 −$2,732 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $206 −$206 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 30 $298 +$201 +67%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 30 $3,077 +$3,506 +114%
Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 May 22 $1,062 +$1,062 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 21 $531 −$531 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) May 18 $2,130 +$583 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,976 +$746 +38%
LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5 May 08 $508 −$508 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 May 06 $736 +$638 +87%
LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5 May 06 $392 −$392 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 05 $2,112 +$2,050 +97%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) May 04 $759 +$232 +31%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 May 01 $683 +$690 +101%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $1,763 +$2,199 +125%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $7,300 +$2,115 +29%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 20.5 Apr 28 $197 +$176 +90%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 Apr 28 $648 −$648 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Apr 27 $390 +$310 +79%
Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $196 +$129 +66%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 27 $1,314 −$1,314 -100%
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Apr 26 $2,711 +$539 +20%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $490 −$490 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 26 $1,380 +$520 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Apr 25 $355 +$438 +124%
1H Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 25 $1,459 +$1,661 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $4,484 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $519 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $3,417 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $3,082 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $1 46h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $5 46h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $0 46h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $232 47h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL No 78¢ $2,491 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL No 78¢ $17 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 26¢ $1,099 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $15 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $11 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $3 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $36 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $10 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $841 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $2,300 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $575 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 29¢ $0 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $238 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $798 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $48 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $2 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $12 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $542 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $2 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $140 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $280 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,455.72 · official $11,256.50 · 835 history records