Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdbbf…184f crypto 1297 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$660 (-17%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%142W / 662L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day178.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$104
14 days−$74
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$60
sports 40% −$120
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -0.5% -10.0% 84% 3% -18.3%
≤30d 804 +5.6% -4.5% 18% 8% -13.6%
≤90d 804 +5.6% -4.5% 18% 8% -13.6%
all 804 +5.6% -4.5% 18% 8% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 8% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 8% -21.8%
15% -21.9% 7% -29.4%
20% -29.6% 6% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses142 / 662
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)804 / 1297
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day178.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 804 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 95¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $24 +$2 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $19 −$4 -22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $20 $0 +3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 −$2 -20%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $24 +$1 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $114 −$109 -96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $38 −$19 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 95¢ $5 14m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 95¢ $5 16m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 97¢ $15 38m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 95¢ $14 53m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 98¢ $15 58m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 96¢ $14 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 97¢ $5 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 97¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 95¢ $5 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 95¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 96¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 96¢ $5 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 96¢ $14 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 95¢ $5 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 95¢ $5 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $15 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $5 17h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $5 17h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 95¢ $14 19h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 90¢ $5 19h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 95¢ $5 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 96¢ $14 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 98¢ $5 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 95¢ $14 22h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 95¢ $5 22h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 95¢ $5 23h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 97¢ $5 23h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 97¢ $15 24h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 97¢ $5 25h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $15 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.40 · official $9.40 (match) · 3500 history records