Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbc2…3ea4 other 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$88 (+28%) realized +$87 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%38W / 151L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$32
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$3
sports 37% +$89
crypto 9% −$10
weather 1% +$26
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +22.2% +10.5% 14% 14% +18.0%
≤30d 189 +28.4% +16.2% 20% 20% +27.6%
≤90d 189 +28.4% +16.2% 20% 20% +27.6%
all 189 +28.4% +16.2% 20% 20% +27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.2% 20% +27.6%
10% ← realistic here +5.1% 20% +15.4%
15% -5.1% 20% +4.3%
20% -14.4% 20% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses38 / 151
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)189 / 242
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 23¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $2 +$16 +711%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $1 +$6 +550%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $2 +$23 +1115%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $1 +$16 +1577%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Argentina? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Argentina? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 +$9 +873%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $1 +$6 +595%
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 +$5 +442%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 +$9 +874%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY 8¢ $1 36m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - BUY 2¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - BUY 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - BUY 4¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Germany 2 BUY 5¢ $1 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Germany vs. BUY 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread BUY 15¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 9¢ $2 11h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 20¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.97 · official $19.76 · 304 history records