Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdbc4…4347
world · 239 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$796 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$745 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,456
Realized+$745
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses118 / 74
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions50
Markets (closed)192 / 239
History coverage30d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day111.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 50 History 192 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$50
14 days+$371
30 days+$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $676 $690 +$14 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 42¢ $46 $85 +$39 (+85%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 94¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 79¢ 82¢ $53 $56 +$2 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 34¢ $43 $42 −$2 (-4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $38 $32 −$6 (-15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+153%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-36%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 63¢ 50¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-21%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No 86¢ 92¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+49%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 +$17 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $25 −$21 -84%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $51 −$7 -14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $312 −$16 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $30 +$5 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $12 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 12 $30 −$2 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $73 −$29 -39%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $11 −$9 -79%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $226 −$38 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $54 +$2 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $97 +$5 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $14 +$2 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $93 +$16 +18%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $16 $0 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +16%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $11 +$2 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $10 −$7 -73%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $50 −$6 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $69 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $19 +$129 +695%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 07 $177 −$147 -83%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $4 −$3 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$128
crypto 25% +$610
politics 15% +$49
other 9% −$18
tech 1% +$17
finance 1% −$5
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$9
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 22m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 56m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 25% -10.8%
≤30d 192 +25.6% +13.7% 61% 32% +0.2%
≤90d 192 +25.6% +13.7% 61% 32% +0.2%
all 192 +25.6% +13.7% 61% 32% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover111.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.7% 32% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here +2.8% 21% -9.4%
15% -7.1% 18% -18.1%
20% -16.3% 15% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,455.88 · official $1,455.53 (match) · 3500 history records