Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbc4…35e3 weather 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,033 (-14%) realized −$9,015 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%185W / 232L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,005now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$893
14 days−$704
30 days−$3,985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$7,262
weather 20% +$647
other 15% −$1,273
finance 12% −$1,395
world 2% +$9
politics 1% −$3
tech 1% −$1
economics 0% −$16
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -19.6% -27.2% 49% 34% -22.1%
≤30d 82 -18.3% -26.1% 48% 32% -21.9%
≤90d 417 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 33% -23.2%
all 417 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 33% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 33% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 25% -30.6%
15% -34.8% 19% -37.3%
20% -41.2% 16% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -41% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$92 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,005
Realized−$9,015
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses185 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)417 / 431
History coverage54d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $233 $289 +$57 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Up 68¢ 58¢ $188 $163 −$25 (-13%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 66¢ 74¢ $85 $95 +$10 (+12%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 69¢ 66¢ $95 $91 −$4 (-4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Up 61¢ 44¢ $77 $56 −$21 (-27%)
BNB Up or Down on June 29? Down 49¢ 50¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 40¢ 26¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Down 62¢ 56¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 40¢ 34¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-16%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 48¢ 52¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
BNB Up or Down on June 29? Up 58¢ 50¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 26¢ 36¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+40%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 60¢ 48¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 82¢ 86¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 82¢ 64¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-23%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+96%)
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 29? Up 27¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $62 −$58 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $274 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $114 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $43 +$6 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $24 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $46 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $231 +$57 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $62 −$12 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $263 +$30 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $214 −$30 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$42 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $156 −$11 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $797 −$541 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1,168 +$32 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $610 +$20 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $26 −$10 -41%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $161 −$4 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $304 −$304 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $533 +$117 +22%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 22 $50 −$3 -5%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 22 $11 −$4 -36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $446 −$414 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $309 +$217 +70%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $301 +$123 +41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $334 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $953 +$1 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,841 +$80 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $549 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $162 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $156 +$1 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $895 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $12 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 26¢ $1 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 28¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $58 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $32 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 24m
BNB Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 50¢ $2 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $38 34m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $45 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $42 39m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 69¢ $139 43m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 49¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $151 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $274 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,004.78 · official $1,005.38 (match) · 2396 history records