Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdbc6…f2f8
sports · 323 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$252 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$266 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,806
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses310 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)320 / 323
History coverage545d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 3 History 320 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$28
14 days+$95
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Knicks 99¢ 100¢ $1,019 $1,029 +$10 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $453 $457 +$5 (+1%)
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Knicks 99¢ 100¢ $417 $420 +$3 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $396 $396 +$0 (+0%)
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 No 99¢ 100¢ $264 $266 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $221 $221 +$0 (+0%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 No 99¢ 100¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spurs (-23.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Spurs 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Spurs 99¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+12%)
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Spurs 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Knicks 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $1,019 +$10 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 14 $417 +$3 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $396 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $453 +$5 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $115 +$1 +1%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $264 +$3 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $86 +$1 +2%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-23.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 14 $221 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Spread: Knicks (-21.5) Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 11 $377 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-20.5) Jun 11 $1,165 +$1 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 11 $2,201 +$2 +0%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $33 $0 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 06 $434 +$4 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 06 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 06 $1,033 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 06 $1,248 +$5 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $3,743 +$4 +0%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 May 31 $10 $0 +0%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 31 $17 $0 +1%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 May 31 $61 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $91 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $160 +$5 +3%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 31 $396 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $2,955 +$46 +2%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $45 $0 +1%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $45 $0 +1%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 29 $45 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 29 $980 +$20 +2%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $1,257 +$2 +0%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 May 29 $1,311 +$2 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3,631 +$6 +0%
Josh Hart: Points O/U 2.5 May 29 $33 +$1 +4%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 May 23 $20 $0 +1%
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 May 23 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$297
other 11% −$27
tech 5% +$31
crypto 4% −$29
world 4% +$7
politics 2% −$15
weather 1% +$1
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 99¢ $969 1h
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $114 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Under 100¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $50 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 100¢ $396 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 BUY Under 99¢ $453 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Under 99¢ $115 1h
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY No 99¢ $264 1h
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) BUY Spurs 100¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $4 1h
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 99¢ $86 1h
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spurs (-23.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) BUY Spurs 100¢ $7 1h
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $250 1h
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) BUY Spurs 99¢ $22 1h
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $221 1h
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $64 1h
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $64 1h
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Knicks 99¢ $303 1h
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Knicks 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) BUY Spurs 100¢ $377 3d
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) BUY Spurs 100¢ $2,201 3d
Spread: Knicks (-21.5) BUY Spurs 100¢ $10 3d
1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5) BUY Spurs 93¢ $6 3d
Spread: Knicks (-20.5) BUY Spurs 100¢ $1,165 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 58 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 162 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.2%
all 320 -0.9% -10.4% 97% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.9% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,805.81 · official $3,804.91 (match) · 763 history records