Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbc8…af4c crypto 592 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,222 (-13%) realized −$2,222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%179W / 413L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$249
7 days−$78
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,592
economics 0% +$8
other 0% +$7
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -4.4% -13.5% 31% 31% -14.4%
≤30d 92 -6.5% -15.4% 30% 30% -14.9%
≤90d 573 -29.6% -36.3% 29% 26% -36.1%
all 592 -28.1% -35.0% 30% 27% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 27% -23.7%
10% -41.2% 24% -31.0%
15% -46.9% 22% -37.7%
20% -52.1% 19% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses179 / 413
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)592 / 592
History coverage148d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 592 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $156 −$124 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $149 +$210 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $136 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$10 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$16 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$29 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $303 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $161 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1785 history records