Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdbc8…bdb8 sports 1002 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,367 (+4%) realized +$1,392 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate77%773W / 227L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days+$184
14 days+$221
30 days+$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+67.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +102.5% +83.2% 72% 22% -6.8%
≤30d 330 +135.2% +112.8% 71% 25% -7.2%
≤90d 1000 +85.3% +67.7% 77% 16% -8.3%
all 1000 +85.3% +67.7% 77% 16% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +67.7% 16% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here +51.6% 14% -17.1%
15% +37.0% 11% -25.1%
20% +23.5% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +128% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1,392
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses773 / 227
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1000 / 1002
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1000 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Burdet vs. Martin: Match O/U 21.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-49%)
Mushika vs. Lin: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 84¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arnaboldi vs. Ravasio: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Petr Bar Biryukov vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 +$1 +4895%
Erel vs. Tabata: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Buse vs. Giron: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Broska vs. Neumayer: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Sweeny vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bernard Tomic vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Li vs. Birrell: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Ymer vs. Searle: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Astakhova vs. Basiletti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Lin vs. Mushika: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Lucio Ratti vs. Calvin Hemery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $123 −$60 -49%
Serban vs. Sherif: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $86 +$2 +2%
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Jones vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Paul vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $143 +$1 +1%
Oliver Tarvet vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +4895%
Mochizuki vs. Zheng: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Mochizuki vs. Zheng: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Mochizuki vs. Zheng: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Oliveira vs. Hernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Balshaw vs. Sanchis: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Burel vs Lim Jun 14 $0 +$16 +4849%
Garcia vs. Vujovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Blinkova vs. Bondar: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $150 +$1 +1%
Blinkova vs. Bondar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $144 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Bondar Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Set 1 Winner: Avdeeva vs Vedder Jun 14 $30 +$18 +60%
Avdeeva vs. Vedder: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Taborda vs Rivera Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Ma vs. Pawlikowska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Taborda vs. Rivera: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $204 +$3 +2%
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 +$2 +22%
Granwehr vs. Lim: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Lene vs. Garcia: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Adams vs. Yoruk: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Curbelo vs. Dinev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Curbelo vs. Dinev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Sato vs Nishimura Jun 13 $20 +$12 +57%
Aytoyan vs. Ekstrand: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Maric vs. Podoroska: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Romano vs. Jones: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Romano vs. Jones: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Romano vs. Jones: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Raul Brancaccio vs. Roberto Carballes Baena: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$48 +4850%
Iva Jovic vs. Amanda Anisimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 +$3 +13%
Daniel Galan vs. Kimmer Coppejans: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$48 +4850%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $82 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Burdet vs. Martin: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 5m
Petr Bar Biryukov vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 100¢ $1 14m
Arnaboldi vs. Ravasio: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $48 42m
Arnaboldi vs. Ravasio: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $150 42m
Erel vs. Tabata: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 49m
Petr Bar Biryukov vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 2¢ $0 54m
Buse vs. Giron: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 58m
Erel vs. Tabata: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Buse vs. Giron: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Broska vs. Neumayer: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 1h
Sweeny vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 1h
Bernard Tomic vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 99¢ $0 1h
Bernard Tomic vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 99¢ $25 1h
Bernard Tomic vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 98¢ $25 1h
Li vs. Birrell: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 1h
Sweeny vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Broska vs. Neumayer: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 1h
Ymer vs. Searle: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 2h
Li vs. Birrell: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 2h
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 4h
Astakhova vs. Basiletti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 98¢ $61 5h
Lin vs. Mushika: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 8h
Mushika vs. Lin: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 8h
Lucio Ratti vs. Calvin Hemery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 98¢ $123 19h
Serban vs. Sherif: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 22h
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 7¢ $0 22h
Serban vs. Sherif: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 97¢ $3 22h
Serban vs. Sherif: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $84 22h
Serban vs. Sherif: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 97¢ $83 22h
Jones vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.83 · official $34.83 (match) · 3500 history records