Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DB 0xdbc8…a2f4 crypto 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$55 (+2%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate69%344W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days+$16
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 453 +0.2% -9.4% 69% 69% -8.8%
≤30d 500 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 68% -8.7%
≤90d 500 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 68% -8.7%
all 500 +1.0% -8.6% 69% 68% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 68% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 60% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 45% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 24% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses344 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)500 / 500
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 500 Trades
no open positions (92 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 928 history records