Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbc9…cda3 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$465 (-23%) realized −$475 · open −$77
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days+$17
14 days−$114
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$551
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +42.7% +29.1% 20% 20% -4.7%
≤30d 20 -5.0% -14.0% 30% 30% -32.8%
≤90d 20 -5.0% -14.0% 30% 30% -32.8%
all 20 -5.0% -14.0% 30% 30% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 30% -32.8%
10% -22.3% 30% -39.2%
15% -29.8% 30% -45.1%
20% -36.6% 20% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$81 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$475
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage21d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 31¢ $78 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$209 +408%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $25 −$13 -51%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $50 −$25 -50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $207 −$154 -74%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $82 −$81 -99%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Colorado Eagles Jun 08 $53 +$129 +244%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins Jun 08 $14 +$38 +267%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $295 −$290 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $60 −$49 -82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $272 +$127 +47%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $26 −$25 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $174 −$171 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $140 −$137 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $208 +$140 +67%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $104 −$69 -67%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $69 −$68 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $44 −$43 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $31 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 31¢ $79 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $260 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $51 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 34¢ $12 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 67¢ $25 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 14¢ $25 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 26¢ $20 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $21 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 27¢ $30 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $29 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 58¢ $69 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 59¢ $138 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $82 7d
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Colorado Eagles SELL Chicago Wolves 99¢ $182 7d
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Colorado Eagles BUY Chicago Wolves 28¢ $53 7d
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins SELL Toronto Marlies 99¢ $52 7d
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins BUY Toronto Marlies 26¢ $14 7d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever 43¢ $5 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes $6 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $89 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $86 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $120 8d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Los Angeles Sparks 10¢ $11 8d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $60 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 62¢ $57 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 32¢ $31 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 47¢ $342 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 32¢ $242 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.13 (match) · 43 history records