Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdbca…ca8d sports 812 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,151 (-9%) realized −$19,746 · open −$405
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%367W / 433L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$2,825est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,055now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,730
7 days+$799
14 days−$13,780
30 days−$20,233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$19,622
other 13% −$3,097
crypto 0% +$387
world 0% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -4.1% -13.3% 48% 48% -6.1%
≤30d 251 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 44% -23.1%
≤90d 800 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 46% -19.0%
all 800 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 46% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 46% -19.0%
10% -22.4% 46% -26.7%
15% -29.9% 45% -33.8%
20% -36.8% 42% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$266 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$3,055
Realized−$19,746
Unrealized−$405
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses367 / 433
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$2,825
Open positions12
Markets (closed)800 / 812
History coverage67d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 44¢ 44¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ 46¢ $500 $484 −$16 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $150 $181 +$31 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $150 $179 +$29 (+20%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions KT Wiz 53¢ 61¢ $150 $172 +$22 (+15%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears NC Dinos 45¢ 42¢ $150 $139 −$11 (-7%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 40¢ 10¢ $500 $131 −$369 (-74%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $160 $131 −$29 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $150 $104 −$46 (-31%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 363 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $508 +$628 +124%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $506 +$371 +73%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 22 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $510 +$961 +188%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $507 +$454 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $510 +$961 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $510 +$1,005 +197%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $507 +$436 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $800 −$787 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $506 +$301 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $506 +$301 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $507 +$473 +93%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $506 +$301 +60%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $154 −$16 -10%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$356 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $509 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,015 +$393 +39%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $507 +$473 +93%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $507 +$386 +76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $507 +$402 +79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $507 +$436 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $508 +$603 +119%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $508 +$579 +114%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 −$500 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 −$500 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 +$302 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 +$276 +180%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $508 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $510 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $509 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $509 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $508 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $506 13h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 16h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 37¢ $509 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $508 38h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $506 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $510 38h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $507 47h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 45¢ $800 2d
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY FURIA 55¢ $1,013 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 34¢ $510 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $510 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $510 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $507 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 16¢ $138 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $509 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 38¢ $509 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $507 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $509 3d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 3d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $506 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $506 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,055.26 · official $3,067.76 (match) · 1350 history records