Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdbca…b7b7 sports 1198 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$102,852 (-9%) realized −$109,027 · open +$6,175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%509W / 688L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,007per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$811est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$24,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22,314
7 days+$22,357
14 days+$22,380
30 days+$22,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$28,037
other 33% −$53,701
world 0% −$79
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -31.5% -38.0% 33% 31% +32.3%
≤30d 175 -12.1% -20.4% 39% 38% +32.0%
≤90d 808 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 41% -13.5%
all 1197 -6.0% -14.9% 43% 42% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 42% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 42% -24.2%
15% -30.5% 41% -31.6%
20% -37.3% 39% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,440) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,073 vs −$927 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$24,170
Realized−$109,027
Unrealized+$6,175
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses509 / 688
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$811
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1197 / 1198
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,007
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 68¢ $17,995 $24,170 +$6,175 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21,695 +$15,881 +73%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $6,588 −$6,588 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $9,782 +$11,275 +115%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10,044 +$1,856 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Yokohama FC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 +$4 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$4 +172%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $4 +$3 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$4 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3,041 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15,218 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $10,044 7h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,856 7h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $7,011 7h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $915 7h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $6,588 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $21,691 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $3 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $3 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $3 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $3 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $6 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $3 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $2 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $4 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $6 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $5 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $4 2d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $3 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $3 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $4 3d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 3d
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $6 3d
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,169.54 · official $26,992.26 · 3191 history records