Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbd1…0ac8 crypto 1359 markets active 11h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$327 (-6%) realized −$327 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%578W / 781L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$10
14 days−$32
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$533
sports 3% +$17
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.3% -7.4% 40% 40% -6.7%
≤30d 188 -9.1% -17.7% 42% 42% -17.7%
≤90d 1359 -5.0% -14.0% 43% 41% -18.4%
all 1359 -5.0% -14.0% 43% 41% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 41% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 39% -26.2%
15% -29.8% 36% -33.3%
20% -36.7% 32% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses578 / 781
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1359 / 1359
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1359 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$30 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -87%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 15 $2 +$11 +493%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records