Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdbdb…b7de sports 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$211 (+11%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$149
14 days+$193
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$87
other 45% +$105
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 33 +7.6% -2.6% 70% 55% -0.6%
≤90d 34 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 53% -0.9%
all 34 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 53% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 53% -0.9%
10% -14.1% 32% -10.4%
15% -22.4% 24% -19.1%
20% -30.0% 9% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage78d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $42 +$10 +24%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $46 −$8 -18%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $30 +$16 +51%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 −$7 -24%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 +$18 +59%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 −$11 -37%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $26 $0 -1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $31 +$16 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 +$19 +39%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $141 +$28 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$43 +44%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $171 +$22 +13%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $117 +$55 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$12 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $186 +$21 +11%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$15 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$21 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$7 +19%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $9 −$7 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 22m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 55¢ $27 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 59¢ $30 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $42 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $18 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $19 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 8h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $46 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 23h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 33¢ $23 23h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $31 23h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $48 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 41¢ $19 26h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 27h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $30 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 65¢ $26 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $26 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $31 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $65 44h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $70 44h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $50 46h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $169 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $141 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.55 · official $26.34 · 76 history records