Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbe2…86be politics 102 markets active 4d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$80 (-2%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$2
politics 41% −$2
sports 9% −$76
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -2.5% -11.8% 3% 2% -10.5%
all 102 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -11.1%
10% -19.3% 4% -19.6%
15% -27.1% 3% -27.4%
20% -34.2% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×7.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage110d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $128 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $78 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 19d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 19d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 23d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 25d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 25d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 27d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 27d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 28d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $45 28d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $45 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 29d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records