Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbe5…476d sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day61.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$14
world 47% −$19
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -27.7% -34.6% 39% 21% +4.0%
≤30d 28 -27.7% -34.6% 39% 21% +4.0%
≤90d 28 -27.7% -34.6% 39% 21% +4.0%
all 28 -27.7% -34.6% 39% 21% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 21% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -40.8% 18% -6.0%
15% -46.5% 7% -15.1%
20% -51.8% 7% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)28 / 39
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day61.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 22¢ 84¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+284%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 79¢ 77¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets New York Mets 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Texas Rangers 59¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+69%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 88¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 28¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) Toronto Tempo 50¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 76¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Under 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2 −$1 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -3%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $28 −$1 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $16 $0 -1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $7 $0 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$16 -81%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $4 −$1 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $7 −$1 -8%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $17 +$15 +88%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $14 +$4 +30%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $8 +$3 +30%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $7 −$1 -15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $7 +$7 +93%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $7 −$1 -9%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1 39m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 39m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $3 40m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 52m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 71¢ $1 52m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 56m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $1 56m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $2 56m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $1 59m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 73¢ $1 59m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 67¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 66¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 67¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.73 · official $36.61 · 262 history records