Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbec…5088 crypto 1598 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,588 (-3%) realized −$1,624 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate81%1294W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,533
weather 3% −$316
other 0% −$5
sports 0% −$37
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$15
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 25 -43.0% -48.4% 24% 12% -44.7%
≤90d 486 -14.6% -22.8% 62% 26% -22.8%
all 1603 -2.8% -12.1% 81% 47% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 47% -12.6%
10% -20.5% 9% -21.0%
15% -28.2% 3% -28.6%
20% -35.2% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$29 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$1,624
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1294 / 309
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1603 / 1598
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? No 52¢ 100¢ $30 $57 +$27 (+91%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? Yes 50¢ 91¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on May 8? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 8? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 8? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 8? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C or below on May 8? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 8? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on May 8? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $19 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $25 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $39 −$38 -97%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $36 −$35 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $51 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 24? May 24 $41 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 24? May 24 $34 −$10 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 24? May 24 $10 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? May 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 20? May 20 $23 −$21 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 20? May 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 17? May 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? May 17 $6 +$9 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 16? May 17 $15 −$6 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16? May 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $10 +$11 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 16? May 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 16? May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 16? May 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 15? May 15 $76 −$14 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 15? May 15 $39 −$15 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 15? May 15 $10 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 15? May 15 $10 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 14? May 14 $101 −$82 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 14? May 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 14? May 14 $34 −$30 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? BUY No 52¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 54¢ $26 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $30 15d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? SELL No 11¢ $1 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 12¢ $1 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? SELL No 20¢ $0 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 68¢ $3 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 68¢ $3 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? BUY No 67¢ $3 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 35¢ $1 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? BUY No 73¢ $4 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 81¢ $4 24d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? BUY No 84¢ $4 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? SELL No 11¢ $2 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 10¢ $0 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 9¢ $0 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 10¢ $0 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 12¢ $0 24d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 53¢ $3 24d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.67 · official $74.77 (match) · 3500 history records