Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbed…1ec9 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%25W / 29L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$1
world 28% +$2
sports 16% +$5
other 6% −$2
finance 3% +$8
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 16 +2.6% -7.2% 44% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 27 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 7% -9.0%
all 54 -3.3% -12.5% 46% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 6% -9.0%
10% -20.9% 4% -17.7%
15% -28.5% 2% -25.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses25 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage531d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $14 −$2 -12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $54 +$4 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $138 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $49 −$4 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $29 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +47%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $14 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $230 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $13 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $75 +$8 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $93 +$3 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $17 $0 -1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will Barack Obama be named in Epstein files? Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $216 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $216 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $308 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $237 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Daria Kasatkina win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $9 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2000 on May 2? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $44 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $49 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $49 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $49 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $46 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $26 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 36¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $42 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $21 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records