Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdbf2…e987 weather 1484 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,477 (+1%) realized +$1,456 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%1342W / 45L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$208
7 days−$116
14 days+$102
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$423
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -1.2% -10.6% 94% 1% -9.9%
≤30d 993 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1387 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.2%
all 1387 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$8,257
Realized+$1,456
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1342 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions97
Markets (closed)1387 / 1484
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 97 History 1387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $546 $546 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $284 $285 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $232 $233 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $228 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $225 $226 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $194 $194 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $193 $193 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $179 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $121 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $119 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 20? No 97¢ 99¢ $115 $118 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on June 17? Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $710 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $244 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $270 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $108 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $269 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $129 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $487 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Jun 17 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? Jun 17 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $43 2m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $60 37m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $119 39m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $8 42m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 46m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $49 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $229 48m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $20 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 53m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $94 53m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 95¢ $9 54m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $87 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $115 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $199 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,257.42 · official $8,256.66 (match) · 3500 history records