Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdbf2…db43 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$325 (-16%) realized −$323 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$67
other 34% −$268
crypto 6% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 44% -24.7%
≤30d 16 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 44% -24.7%
≤90d 16 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 44% -24.7%
all 16 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 44% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 44% -24.7%
10% -17.0% 44% -31.9%
15% -25.0% 44% -38.5%
20% -32.4% 44% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$101 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 76¢ $50 $97 +$47 (+94%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 20¢ $89 $41 −$49 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $49 +$42 +85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $167 −$164 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $158 +$120 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $163 −$5 -3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 +$87 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $225 −$149 -66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $141 −$130 -92%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $143 +$155 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $61 +$82 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$5 -9%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 +$60 +119%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $91 27m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 96¢ $90 48m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $49 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $167 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $112 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $279 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $123 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $35 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $158 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $163 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $76 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $76 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $225 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 5¢ $11 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $41 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 76¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $298 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $143 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $61 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 34¢ $46 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $202 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $51 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.66 · official $139.65 · 31 history records