Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DB 0xdbf7…fbea world 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 724d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39,347 (+8%) realized +$34,248 · open +$5,099
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%115W / 95L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$2,070per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$64,139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$97
14 days+$995
30 days+$995
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$14,968
other 32% +$5,675
politics 14% +$9,137
sports 4% −$118
economics 2% −$960
crypto 0% +$59
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 25% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 40% -7.2%
≤90d 29 -4.7% -13.8% 62% 48% -2.3%
all 210 -2.2% -11.6% 55% 40% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 40% -4.0%
10% -20.0% 27% -13.2%
15% -27.7% 20% -21.6%
20% -34.8% 15% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$266 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

724d coverage
Net worth$64,139
Realized+$34,248
Unrealized+$5,099
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses115 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions27
Markets (closed)210 / 238
History coverage724d
Avg bet$2,070
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $14,497 $18,015 +$3,517 (+24%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $13,868 $13,818 −$50 (-0%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $9,000 $9,131 +$131 (+1%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 33¢ 34¢ $7,359 $7,491 +$132 (+2%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $3,160 $3,294 +$134 (+4%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $3,293 $3,274 −$19 (-1%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 90¢ $1,485 $2,551 +$1,067 (+72%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 48¢ 93¢ $1,094 $2,092 +$999 (+91%)
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,956 $2,026 +$69 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $1,226 $1,071 −$155 (-13%)
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 90¢ 88¢ $540 $531 −$9 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $265 $277 +$12 (+4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 48¢ 10¢ $712 $142 −$570 (-80%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat? No 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $51 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $39 $34 −$5 (-13%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 37¢ $1 $33 +$32 (+3212%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $77 $29 −$48 (-62%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+150%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+250%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 90¢ 96¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $150 $10 −$140 (-93%)
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7,898 −$1,704 -22%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $352 +$113 +32%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 19 $600 +$947 +158%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $25,608 +$1,932 +8%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 19 $82 +$3 +4%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 18 $1,224 −$1,183 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2,880 +$832 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $200 +$66 +33%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $25,458 +$2,788 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $473 +$68 +14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2,487 +$1,086 +44%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? May 15 $274 −$56 -20%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,589 +$38 +2%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P May 09 $8 +$2 +25%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 May 08 $2,378 −$11 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $332 +$168 +51%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?? Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $2,835 +$662 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $444 +$79 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $1,452 +$755 +52%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $70 −$26 -36%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $6,471 −$740 -11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 08 $5,039 +$221 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,340 +$324 +24%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $7,229 +$1,454 +20%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 09 $18,052 +$6,756 +37%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Mar 09 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Mar 09 $221 −$221 -100%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 09 $261 +$106 +41%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $352 +$68 +19%
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? Mar 06 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $138 −$138 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 03 $204 $0 -0%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 02 $2,489 −$69 -3%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? Mar 02 $22,023 +$1,867 +8%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? Mar 01 $187 +$25 +13%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 01 $890 +$110 +12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $352 +$263 +75%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $9,662 +$2,369 +24%
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28? Feb 28 $45 −$45 -100%
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $378 +$79 +21%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-e Feb 27 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Hannah Spencer – Green Party finish second in the Gorton and Dent Feb 27 $248 +$2 +1%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish third in the Gorton and Denton by Feb 27 $903 +$16 +2%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 27 $1,693 +$772 +46%
U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31? Feb 27 $478 −$478 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $9,053 17m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $6,945 17m
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 30m
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 30m
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 30m
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $46 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $7,107 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 31¢ $251 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $335 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $323 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $121 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $637 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,610 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 14h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 14h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $97 14h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $13,844 14h
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el BUY No 92¢ $6 14h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $463 14h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,211 15h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $120 15h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $745 15h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $12 15h
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el BUY No 91¢ $1,957 15h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $15 17h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $7 17h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 0¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64,138.77 · official $64,138.78 (match) · 1572 history records