Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdbf8…1c45 crypto 259 markets active 5h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$196 (-3%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate73%189W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$237
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -8.0% -16.8% 76% 11% -19.7%
≤30d 259 -2.8% -12.0% 73% 23% -12.8%
≤90d 259 -2.8% -12.0% 73% 23% -12.8%
all 259 -2.8% -12.0% 73% 23% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 23% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 10% -21.2%
15% -28.1% 7% -28.8%
20% -35.2% 6% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses189 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage22d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$6 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 613 history records