Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdbf9…9188 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$220 (-7%) realized −$219 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$658
other 41% +$355
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 47% -19.0%
≤30d 17 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 47% -19.0%
≤90d 17 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 47% -19.0%
all 17 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 47% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 47% -19.0%
10% -25.8% 41% -26.7%
15% -32.9% 35% -33.8%
20% -39.5% 18% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$151 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 −$8 -51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $77 +$26 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $82 −$65 -80%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $989 −$989 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $113 +$46 +41%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $140 −$28 -20%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $630 +$359 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $216 +$501 +232%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $110 +$59 +54%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $80 +$30 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $55 +$25 +45%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $61 +$9 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 −$18 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 80¢ $103 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $77 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $82 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $113 18h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $112 18h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $140 31h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $989 32h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $989 32h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $630 37h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $123 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 19¢ $87 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $93 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $169 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $110 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $110 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $80 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $55 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $70 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 72¢ $62 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $80 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.23 · official $99.23 (match) · 37 history records