Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbf9…b9cc other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$560 (-6%) realized −$1,877 · open +$1,317
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 96L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$1,465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,071
7 days−$1,071
14 days−$1,035
30 days−$1,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$927
politics 47% −$4
tech 1% +$29
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-67.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -98.7% -98.8% 0% 0% -80.2%
≤30d 83 -91.9% -92.7% 6% 1% -63.2%
≤90d 108 -64.5% -67.9% 11% 4% -37.9%
all 108 -64.5% -67.9% 11% 4% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.9% 4% -37.9%
10% -71.0% 4% -43.8%
15% -73.8% 3% -49.3%
20% -76.3% 3% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 88% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$40 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,465
Realized−$1,877
Unrealized+$1,317
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)108 / 39
History coverage85d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $59 $813 +$753 (+1267%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $28 $483 +$455 (+1645%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $140 +$120 (+600%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $8 −$14 (-64%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+354%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1600-1679 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 6m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $78 7m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 8m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $37 18m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,464.80 · official $1,464.80 (match) · 380 history records