Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbf9…c527 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-2%) realized −$38 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%18W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$139
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$95
sports 39% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -41.8% -47.3% 29% 29% -16.0%
≤30d 53 -29.8% -36.5% 34% 34% -14.2%
≤90d 53 -29.8% -36.5% 34% 34% -14.2%
all 53 -29.8% -36.5% 34% 34% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 34% -14.2%
10% -42.6% 34% -22.4%
15% -48.1% 34% -29.9%
20% -53.2% 26% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$34 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses18 / 35
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage19d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $103 +$103 +101%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $124 +$328 +265%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $59 −$57 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $205 −$205 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $80 +$57 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +91%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$45 +44%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 +$43 +43%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$54 +105%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $20 +$10 +49%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 +$182 +89%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $26 +$41 +160%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 +$13 +64%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 +$24 +119%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$30 +285%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 +$21 +103%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 +$23 +112%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $52 58m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 59m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $452 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $45 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $13 7h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 26¢ $124 14h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $80 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $103 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 4d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $105 4d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 100¢ $30 4d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 65¢ $20 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 44¢ $21 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 62¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $77 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.67 · official $194.68 (match) · 117 history records