Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdbfb…d4d2 other 11 markets active 23h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-48%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$4
crypto 20% −$3
sports 15% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-66.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -62.5% -66.1% 20% 20% -67.7%
≤30d 10 -62.5% -66.1% 20% 20% -67.7%
≤90d 10 -62.5% -66.1% 20% 20% -67.7%
all 10 -62.5% -66.1% 20% 20% -67.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.1% 20% -67.7%
10% -69.3% 20% -70.8%
15% -72.3% 10% -73.6%
20% -75.0% 10% -76.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 16¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 46h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $2 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 6¢ $1 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.33 · official $3.33 (match) · 18 history records