Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DC 0xdc03…d35d crypto 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$877 (-3%) realized −$857 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%124W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,050
sports 0% −$65
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -30.0% -36.6% 50% 50% -43.7%
≤30d 2 -30.0% -36.6% 50% 50% -43.7%
≤90d 216 -7.2% -16.0% 57% 48% -13.2%
all 219 -8.4% -17.2% 57% 47% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 47% -13.4%
10% -25.1% 38% -21.7%
15% -32.3% 24% -29.3%
20% -39.0% 15% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$60 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$857
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses124 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 220
History coverage91d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 62¢ 38¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 29 $20 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 29 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 29 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 29 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$18 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 29 $30 −$27 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 29 $30 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 28 $68 −$67 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 28 $80 +$36 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 28 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 28 $200 −$118 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 28 $35 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 28 $54 −$37 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 28 $80 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 28 $80 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 28 $80 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 28 $400 −$147 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 27 $300 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 27 $300 +$40 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 27 $400 +$90 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 27 $200 +$109 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 27 $300 −$221 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 27 $200 +$73 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 27 $500 −$462 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 27 $500 +$91 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 27 $400 +$139 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 27 $400 +$39 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 27 $400 +$132 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 27 $11 −$10 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $11 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $9 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $15 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $13 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $22 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $16 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $20 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $25 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $20 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $24 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $20 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.24 · official $30.24 (match) · 519 history records