Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:14:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DC 0xdc04…ddbf other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$56 (+30%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$118
sports 14% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.6% +7.3% 67% 67% +42.7%
≤30d 9 +18.6% +7.3% 67% 67% +42.7%
≤90d 9 +18.6% +7.3% 67% 67% +42.7%
all 9 +18.6% +7.3% 67% 67% +42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 67% +42.7%
10% -2.9% 67% +29.0%
15% -12.3% 67% +16.6%
20% -20.9% 56% +5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$8 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$53 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 6m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 32h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 34h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 35h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records