Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DC 0xdc07…5cca sports 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$229 (+5%) realized +$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%61W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$188
14 days−$158
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$45
other 8% +$137
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +18.6% +7.3% 47% 44% +8.9%
≤30d 153 +9.4% -1.1% 40% 39% -5.1%
≤90d 155 +9.2% -1.2% 39% 38% -5.8%
all 155 +9.2% -1.2% 39% 38% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 38% -5.8%
10% -10.7% 38% -14.8%
15% -19.3% 37% -23.0%
20% -27.2% 35% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses61 / 94
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions3
Markets (closed)155 / 158
History coverage32d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Misa Esports 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 4.5 Corners Over 56¢ 60¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners Under 57¢ 53¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$25 +325%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$32 +411%
Will COD Meknès vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? Jun 25 $11 +$20 +177%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $15 +$19 +125%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Katherine Sebov Jun 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng Jun 25 $14 +$10 +68%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $8 +$18 +238%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Colton Smith Jun 24 $15 +$17 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $8 +$25 +325%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $18 +$15 +83%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $15 −$1 -7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 23 $127 −$4 -3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 23 $13 +$10 +76%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $152 +$86 +57%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $8 +$7 +88%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $17 +$15 +86%
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 22 $19 −$2 -10%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $8 +$11 +144%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $15 +$19 +124%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $8 +$13 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 +$60 +79%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $12 +$10 +83%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $8 +$17 +226%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$19 +128%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $16 +$10 +62%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $8 +$25 +325%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 54¢ $101 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $45 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $45 10h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Andrej Nedic 44¢ $15 16h
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 29h
Will COD Meknès vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 29h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 37¢ $11 29h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 59¢ $14 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Katherine Sebov BUY Iryna Shymanovich 66¢ $20 31h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 44¢ $15 33h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 29¢ $8 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 47¢ $15 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng SELL Laslo Djere 45¢ $14 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 23¢ $8 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day BUY Erika Andreeva 40¢ $10 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen BUY Luca Nardi 29¢ $11 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 54¢ $18 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Laslo Djere 47¢ $15 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 35¢ $11 2d
Piracicaba: Santiago De La Fuente vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 51¢ $127 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet BUY Jessika Ponchet 30¢ $8 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 62¢ $16 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 56¢ $13 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 54¢ $18 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 53¢ $17 5d
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Corentin Moutet 55¢ $19 5d
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 5d
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 26¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.54 · official $186.62 (match) · 323 history records