Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdc08…3657 sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-9%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%42W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$53
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$118
other 46% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 43% -17.0%
≤30d 32 -22.9% -30.2% 38% 38% -47.1%
≤90d 93 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 45% -17.3%
all 94 -6.4% -15.3% 45% 45% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 45% -18.5%
10% -23.4% 41% -26.3%
15% -30.8% 38% -33.4%
20% -37.6% 36% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses42 / 52
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage91d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Yes 54¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 31¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Atlanta Dream 52¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Yes 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) FC Bayern München 45¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) Chicago Sky 53¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Arsenal FC 38¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jirí Procházka 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 236.5 Over 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Yes 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Yes 42¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Chicago White Sox 40¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Yes 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 $0 -28%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $1 +$2 +158%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $31 +$3 +11%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $10 +$12 +119%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $10 +$7 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $1 +$1 +143%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $3 +$3 +86%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Apr 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $6 $0 -3%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $1 +$1 +118%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 16 $2 +$3 +134%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $2 +$3 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7m
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 30¢ $1 9m
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 36m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 40¢ $1 37m
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 38¢ $1 9h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 99¢ $2 23h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Los Angeles Sparks 44¢ $8 23h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $1 23h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 35¢ $4 25h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $10 34h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $6 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 57¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 52¢ $2 3d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $10 6d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) BUY Chicago Sky 53¢ $4 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $5 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 42¢ $10 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $5 7d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros BUY Athletics 50¢ $5 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 42¢ $5 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 24¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $1.08 (match) · 179 history records