Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdc09…f009 crypto 638 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,582 (+1%) realized +$7,582 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%581W / 57L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,287per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +0.9% -8.8% 92% 1% -8.8%
≤30d 260 -0.8% -10.3% 91% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 611 -0.3% -9.8% 91% 0% -9.7%
all 638 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,554) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$223 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,582
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses581 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)638 / 638
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$1,287
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 638 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $1,000 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $999 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $1,010 −$232 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $773 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $1,000 +$126 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $999 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $981 +$29 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,010 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $982 +$28 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,022 +$91 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $988 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $944 +$66 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $157 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,010 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,018 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $991 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $986 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1,003 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $964 −$236 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1,001 −$55 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $999 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $981 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $991 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $981 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $951 −$219 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,000 +$65 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $999 +$96 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1,001 −$12 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $991 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $991 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $490 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $402 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $585 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $393 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $385 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $156 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $91 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $65 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records