Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DC 0xdc0a…ccdc politics 841 markets active 14h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$957 (+7%) realized +$982 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%315W / 445L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$274
14 days−$278
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$309
weather 15% −$81
other 14% −$108
sports 8% −$308
world 7% +$349
economics 6% −$26
crypto 4% −$81
culture 3% +$25
finance 1% −$26
tech 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -25.2% -32.4% 22% 16% -26.5%
≤30d 207 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 26% -15.7%
≤90d 760 -0.5% -9.9% 41% 33% -9.6%
all 760 -0.5% -9.9% 41% 33% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 33% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 28% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 24% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$529
Realized+$982
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses315 / 445
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions83
Markets (closed)760 / 841
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 83 History 760 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes $111 $118 +$7 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+53%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? No 10¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $14 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $14 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+51%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 24¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $9 +$3 (+56%)
Will Trump say "Sex" in June? No 68¢ 80¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $9 +$3 (+52%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $7 +$3 (+82%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +180%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 15 $1 +$12 +1503%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +49%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$6 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$14 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$11 -67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$12 -50%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the announcers say "Yellow Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +186%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 11 $9 +$31 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Dell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 12+ times during earni Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in May? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Wisconsin events? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Serena Williams Win Return Doubles Match at HSBC Championships? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 62¢ $3 14h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 90¢ $5 14h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 90¢ $5 14h
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 71¢ $4 14h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 65¢ $3 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $4 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $6 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $5 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $6 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $4 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $15 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $3 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $5 38h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? SELL No 97¢ $10 38h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF SELL No 96¢ $12 38h
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? BUY No 100¢ $5 46h
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? BUY No 99¢ $10 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY $2 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 96¢ $10 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY $5 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY $4 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end i BUY 13¢ $5 47h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY No $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? BUY No 44¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.94 · official $538.85 · 3500 history records